simulation concepts

| April 24, 2015

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BUS 355 – Term Project Guidelines DEADLINES o Proposal submission deadline: April 2nd (Thursday) by 10:00 pm. One person per team must upload the project proposal to Moodle. If you wish to discuss with me about your proposal beforehand, please feel free to do so. o Project report submission deadline: April 24th (Friday) by 10:00 pm. One person per team must upload the project report to Moodle. x The purpose of this term project is to apply the simulation concepts learned in class to demonstrate your understanding of the use of probability and simulation in a business decision-making environment. x You will conduct and submit this project as a team (group) of 3 – 4 members. x The group chooses the topic. I want you to identify a situation with at least TWO sources of uncertainty. x There are five steps in the project: Identify and formulate the problem, collect data, setup simulation, run simulation, and make recommendations. x Every group should first write a one-page proposal and get my approval. The proposal should include the following: o The group members’ names (and the section number: B or C) o The business problem that you considered for the project o The sources of uncertainty and measurements of interest o Data requirements and how you will collect data x The final deliverables contain the report and Excel spreadsheet that you will submit as a group. ONE group member needs upload the report and the Excel document to Moodle. The final report must contain the following: o Cover page with your project title, section number, and group members’ names o Executive summary: This section should summarize your work in less than 300 words. (see this wiki document on writing an executive summary: http://www.wikihow.com/Write-an-ExecutiveSummary) o Introduction: ƒ Summary of the business problem (include problem statement) ƒ How will simulation help to solve the problem? o Problem description: ƒ What variables are involved in your problem? ƒ Describe input variables ƒ Describe your output variable(s) o Data collection: ƒ What data is needed for your simulation? ƒ Did you use primary sources (you collected data) or secondary sources (collected through Internet databases, trade magazines, personal interviews etc.) for your data collection? o Simulation setup: ƒ What are the variables to be simulated? Are they continuous or discrete? ƒ What is your justification for the use of certain theoretical distributions such as Normal, Binomial, Poisson, Uniform, Exponential, etc.? ƒ Specify your simulation model. This means you describe how your input variables are related to the output variable(s) o Running Simulation: ƒ You can run simulation using Excel or other software that you may see fit. o Recommendations: ƒ Explain your results of the simulation (refer to charts or analysis in appendix if needed) ƒ How does your simulation results help solve the business problem? o References o Appendix o The total report excluding cover page, references, and appendix should not exceed 5 pages. Use Time New Roman or Arial font (11 font size) and 1.5 line spacing. x Grading: The project will be graded for 100 points. The weight of this project to the final grade is 15%. Your proposal will be graded for 5 points and the final report 95 points. Topic Score Proposal 5 Executive Summary 10 Introduction 5 Problem Formulation 20 Data Collection 20 Simulation Setup 15 Running Simulation 15 Recommendations 5 Writing, Grammar, Cover Page, References, Appendix 5 Total score 100 x Peer ratings are instituted to make sure that everyone contributes to the project equally. Procedure for peer grading: o Peer grading is optional. If no one in a group submits a peer rating, the project score will be same for everyone. o You cannot penalize someone without doing the following: ƒ The team must make concerted effort to involve every team member. Despite several attempts to involve, if the individual doesn’t respond, then talk to the person if the group thinks strongly that this person is not contributing. ƒ If the person still does not perform up to the expectations despite being warned, at least two group members should talk to me with supporting evidence. ƒ Only if the above two conditions are met, you can downgrade someone’s peer rating. ƒ Last minute emails to downgrade someone is not a good idea. You must resolve all the issues during the course of the semester. ƒ Deadline for peer grading is April 16th (Thursday). Peer ratings submitted after April 16th will not be considered. If you choose to perform peer grading, you must send me an email. o The following is an example of how you do the peer grading. ƒ Each individual in a group has a potential of 100 points. Each member of the group may group those points in any ratio that they see fit. If you choose to submit peer evaluations, you must email me. If I do not hear from you, I will assume that your distribution is 100-100-100. Again if you think any other distribution is appropriate then you must email me. You cannot evaluate yourself; you can only evaluate your other group members. ƒ The final authority rests with the instructor to adjust grade based on the evidence. All members feel that everyone in the group contributed equally. John’s Grade Distribution Mary’s Grade Distribution Elisa’s Grade Distribution Robin’s Grade Distribution John’s Choices 100 100 100 Mary’s Choices 100 100 100 Elisa’s Choices 100 100 100 Robin’s Choices 100 100 100 Average 100 100 100 100 Grade Distribution 100 100 100 100 Some members felt that one member didn’t contribute. John’s Grade Distribution Mary’s Grade Distribution Elisa’s Grade Distribution Robin’s Grade Distribution John’s Choices 100 100 0 Mary’s Choices 100 100 100 Elisa’s Choices 100 100 0 Robin’s Choices 100 100 100 Average 100 100 100 33.33 Grade Distribution 100 100 100 33.33

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