Quantitative Analysis

| June 23, 2015

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

Competency 309.3.1: Decision-Making Models – The graduate uses optimizing models and other models as aids for making more informed decisions.


Introduction:
In this task, you are asked to conduct a small number of simulation trials. This task should be completed with manual calculations. Please be aware that the simulation results of such a small number of trials would not be sufficient for one to draw valid conclusions in a real situation. A large number of trials run on a computer would be necessary in order to arrive at a valid conclusion. Random numbers are provided in the attached template; these numbers are discrete, uniform, and between 1 and 100 inclusive.

Scenario:
Management has asked you to help estimate the average cost per unit to produce a new product so that they can project profits at different selling prices. You will conduct a Monte Carlo simulation for cost behavior using provided probabilistic data for the following cost estimates, which are provided in the attached worksheet: cost per unit for materials, labor, and utilities and their probability distributions. In your calculations, round to the nearest cent.

Requirements:
Note: When the files opens, enter your name and student ID as they appear in Taskstream into the respective boxes so the task questions and problems will populate the worksheet. If the attached template does not open or is missing information, please contact Ecare for assistance with opening the file.
Note: Complete 12 trials using the random numbers that are provided on the “Simulation Template” for each probability distribution. Use the random numbers in the exact sequence that they appear on the template for each cost.

A.  Complete the attached “QAT1 Task 1 Spreadsheet” (responses should include two decimal places) by doing the following:

1.  Determine required unit costs correctly by doing the following:

a.  Determine the average materials cost per unit.

b.  Determine the average labor cost per unit.

c.  Determine the average utilities cost per unit.

d.  Determine the average total cost per unit.

2.  Include the three random interval tables needed to correctly determine the costs from part A1.

a.  Describe how you correctly used the random interval tables from part A2 to populate the “QAT1 Task 1 Spreadsheet.

B.  Determine the selling price per unit that should be established for the new product using your simulation results.

1.  Describe how you arrived at the selling price from part B.

Note: For your calculations in parts B and B1, assume that the company wants to realize an average markup of $20 on each unit sold.

C.  When you use sources, include all in-text citations and references in APA format.

Note: To reduce unnecessary matches select ignore “small matches <20 words” and “bibliography.”

Note: For definitions of terms commonly used in the rubric, see the Rubric Terms web link included in the Evaluation Procedures section.

Note: When using sources to support ideas and elements in an assessment, the submission MUST include APA formatted in-text citations with a corresponding reference list for any direct quotes or paraphrasing. It is not necessary to list sources that were consulted if they have not been quoted or paraphrased in the text of the assessment.

Note: No more than a combined total of 30% of a submission can be directly quoted or closely paraphrased from outside sources, even if cited correctly. For tips on using APA style, please refer to the APA Handout web link included in the APA Guidelines section

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